London Centre
Federal riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 33.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| London Centre | 55.9% | 22.7% | 6.8% | 2.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+7.3 | 34.4%−11.7 | 5.4%+1.4 | 1.8%+0.3 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+8.9 | 30.4%−7.7 | 11.8%−5.0 | 2.4%−0.3 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Peter Fragiskatos · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 25.5 points, with 67.2% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 33.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Fragiskatos Elected | Liberal | 33,999 | 56.4 | Parliamentarian |
| Stephen Gallant | Conservative | 18,633 | 30.9 | Financial Services |
| Dirka Prout | NDP | 5,790 | 9.6 | Civil Engineer |
| Mary Ann Hodge | Green | 878 | 1.5 | Teacher |
| David Annis | PPC | 523 | 0.9 | Retired Vice Principal |
| Bruce Lamb | Other | 100 | 0.2 | Entrepreneur |
| Other candidates | 327 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- London West Liberal, safe seat
- London—Fanshawe Conservative, toss-up
- Middlesex—London Conservative, toss-up
- Oxford Conservative, safe seat
- Elgin—St. Thomas—London South Liberal, toss-up
- Kitchener—Conestoga Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated