London—Fanshawe
Federal riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a 94% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 95%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| London—Fanshawe | 32.0% | 29.7% | 22.5% | 2.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 34.4%−2.5 | 48.6%−18.9 | 5.4%+17.1 | 1.8%+0.6 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+1.6 | 47.0%−17.3 | 11.8%+10.6 | 2.1%+0.4 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Kurt Holman · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 10.0 points, with 63.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 2.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Holman Elected | Conservative | 23,749 | 40.2 | IT Specialist |
| Najam Naqvi | Liberal | 17,863 | 30.2 | Lawyer |
| Lindsay Mathyssen | NDP | 16,135 | 27.3 | Parliamentarian |
| Daniel Buta | PPC | 776 | 1.3 | Manufacturing Engineer |
| Other candidates | 598 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- London Centre Liberal, safe seat
- London West Liberal, safe seat
- Oxford Conservative, safe seat
- Middlesex—London Conservative, toss-up
- Elgin—St. Thomas—London South Liberal, toss-up
- Kitchener—Conestoga Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated