Middlesex—London
Federal riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a 89% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 97%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesex—London | 43.2% | 41.3% | 3.9% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 34.4%+8.8 | 48.6%−7.3 | 5.4%−1.5 | 1.8%+0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+12.8 | 47.0%−5.7 | 11.8%−7.9 | 2.1%−0.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Lianne Rood · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 9.5 points, with 73.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 2.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lianne Rood Elected | Conservative | 36,093 | 51.4 | Parliamentarian |
| Kent Keenan | Liberal | 29,400 | 41.9 | Retired |
| Taylor McIntosh | NDP | 2,888 | 4.1 | Child and Youth Worker |
| Jim Johnston | Green | 698 | 1.0 | Professor |
| Cynthia Workman | PPC | 577 | 0.8 | Registered Psychotherapist |
| Shawn Cartlidge | Other | 191 | 0.3 | Pastor |
| Other candidates | 346 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- London West Liberal, safe seat
- London Centre Liberal, safe seat
- London—Fanshawe Conservative, toss-up
- Elgin—St. Thomas—London South Liberal, toss-up
- Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong Conservative, safe seat
- Oxford Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated