Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong
Federal riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong | 44.7% | 37.1% | 4.2% | 2.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 34.4%+10.2 | 48.6%−11.4 | 5.4%−1.2 | 1.8%+0.8 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+14.3 | 47.0%−9.9 | 11.8%−7.6 | 2.1%+0.5 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Marilyn Gladu · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 15.2 points, with 71.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 7.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marilyn Gladu Elected | Conservative | 40,597 | 52.9 | Parliamentarian |
| George Vandenberg | Liberal | 28,940 | 37.7 | Licensed Paralegal |
| Lo-Anne Chan | NDP | 4,088 | 5.3 | Chef |
| Brian Everaert | PPC | 1,136 | 1.5 | Iron Worker |
| Jacques Y Boudreau | Other | 990 | 1.3 | Actuary |
| Mark Lamore | Other | 437 | 0.6 | Truck Driver |
| Tony Mitchell | Other | 201 | 0.3 | Substitute Principal |
| Other candidates | 383 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Middlesex—London Conservative, toss-up
- London West Liberal, safe seat
- London Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Elgin—St. Thomas—London South Liberal, toss-up
- Chatham-Kent—Leamington Conservative, safe seat
- London—Fanshawe Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated