Chatham-Kent—Leamington
Federal riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chatham-Kent—Leamington | 48.9% | 35.1% | 3.9% | 2.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 34.4%+14.5 | 48.6%−13.4 | 5.4%−1.5 | 1.8%+0.8 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+18.5 | 47.0%−11.9 | 11.8%−7.9 | 2.1%+0.5 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Dave Epp · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 21.5 points, with 67.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 13.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dave Epp Elected | Conservative | 41,612 | 57.2 | Parliamentarian |
| Keith Pickard | Liberal | 25,978 | 35.7 | Business Owner |
| Seamus McInnis Fleming | NDP | 2,943 | 4.0 | Teaching Assistant |
| Trevor Lee | PPC | 1,061 | 1.5 | Transportation and Logistics |
| James Plunkett | Green | 757 | 1.0 | Truck Driver |
| Other candidates | 448 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Essex Conservative, safe seat
- Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Liberal, safe seat
- Windsor West Conservative, toss-up
- Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong Conservative, safe seat
- Middlesex—London Conservative, toss-up
- Elgin—St. Thomas—London South Liberal, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated