Essex
Federal riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Essex | 49.0% | 35.9% | 4.1% | 2.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 34.4%+14.5 | 48.6%−12.7 | 5.4%−1.3 | 1.8%+0.3 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+18.6 | 47.0%−11.1 | 11.8%−7.7 | 2.1%+0.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
|
|---|
Current member
Chris Lewis · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 20.7 points, with 73.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 13.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Lewis Elected | Conservative | 46,123 | 57.2 | Parliamentarian |
| Chris Sutton | Liberal | 29,389 | 36.4 | Director of Public Affairs |
| Lori Wightman | NDP | 3,826 | 4.7 | Resource Assistant |
| Jason A. E. Henry | PPC | 843 | 1.0 | Mobile Crane Operator |
| Other candidates | 496 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore Liberal, safe seat
- Windsor West Conservative, toss-up
- Chatham-Kent—Leamington Conservative, safe seat
- Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong Conservative, safe seat
- Middlesex—London Conservative, toss-up
- Elgin—St. Thomas—London South Liberal, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated