Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore
Federal riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 6%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Windsor—Tecumseh—Lakeshore | 44.9% | 37.2% | 4.4% | 2.3% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%−3.7 | 34.4%+2.8 | 5.4%−1.0 | 1.8%+0.5 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%−2.1 | 30.4%+6.8 | 11.8%−7.4 | 2.1%+0.2 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Kathy Borrelli · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 0.0 points, with 66.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 7.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kathy Borrelli Elected | Conservative | 32,090 | 45.5 | Retired |
| Irek Kusmierczyk | Liberal | 32,086 | 45.5 | Parliamentarian |
| Alex Ilijoski | NDP | 4,240 | 6.0 | Ambulance Communications Officer |
| Nick Babic | PPC | 828 | 1.2 | Self-Employed |
| Roxanne Tellier | Green | 468 | 0.7 | Retired |
| Helmi Charif | Other | 223 | 0.3 | Businessman |
| Beth St Denis | Other | 203 | 0.3 | Executive Manager |
| Other candidates | 452 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Windsor West Conservative, toss-up
- Essex Conservative, safe seat
- Chatham-Kent—Leamington Conservative, safe seat
- Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong Conservative, safe seat
- Middlesex—London Conservative, toss-up
- Elgin—St. Thomas—London South Liberal, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated