London West
Federal riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 26.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| London West | 55.3% | 28.6% | 4.3% | 1.3% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+6.7 | 34.4%−5.9 | 5.4%−1.1 | 1.8%−0.5 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+8.3 | 30.4%−1.8 | 11.8%−7.5 | 2.4%−1.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Arielle Kayabaga · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 19.1 points, with 72.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 26.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arielle Kayabaga Elected | Liberal | 35,309 | 55.9 | Parliamentarian |
| Adam Benni | Conservative | 23,239 | 36.8 | Banking |
| Shinade Allder | NDP | 3,463 | 5.5 | Network Management |
| Jeff Vanderzwet | Green | 427 | 0.7 | Retired IT Manager |
| Russell Benner | Other | 185 | 0.3 | Warehouse Associate |
| Christine Oliver | Other | 185 | 0.3 | Sales Representative |
| Other candidates | 402 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- London Centre Liberal, safe seat
- London—Fanshawe Conservative, toss-up
- Middlesex—London Conservative, toss-up
- Elgin—St. Thomas—London South Liberal, toss-up
- Oxford Conservative, safe seat
- Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated