Lethbridge

Federal riding · Alberta · Rural Alberta

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a 78% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.6 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 100%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Liberal	Conservative	NDP	Green
Lethbridge	39.5%	38.4%	2.8%	1.7%
Provincial averageAlberta	41.0%−1.5	42.7%−4.3	5.9%−3.1	1.4%+0.3
National averageCanada	47.0%−7.5	30.4%+8.0	11.8%−9.0	2.4%−0.8

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	French 0.2% English 92.3% Other languages 7.5%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Rachael Thomas · Conservative

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Conservative Party won by 28.2 points, with 70.3% turnout.

Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 1.6 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Rachael Thomas Elected	Conservative	40,866	60.8	Parliamentarian
Chris Spearman	Liberal	21,899	32.6	Retired
Nathan Svoboda	NDP	2,431	3.6	Primary Care Paramedic
Marc Slingerland	Other	806	1.2	Teacher
Clara Piedalue	PPC	478	0.7	Business Broker
Amber Murray	Green	457	0.7	Landscaper
Other candidates		244	0.4

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.