Bow River
Federal riding · Alberta · Rural Alberta
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 32.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bow River | 55.9% | 23.7% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 42.7%+13.2 | 41.0%−17.3 | 5.9%−3.3 | 1.8%−0.8 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+25.5 | 47.0%−23.4 | 11.8%−9.2 | 2.1%−1.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
David Bexte · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 61.5 points, with 66.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 32.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Bexte Elected | Conservative | 44,605 | 78.3 | Farmer |
| Bentley Barnes | Liberal | 9,562 | 16.8 | Retired |
| Louisa Gwin | NDP | 1,689 | 3.0 | Commercial Construction Estimator |
| Tom Lipp | Other | 402 | 0.7 | Financial Advisor |
| Aaron Patton | Other | 296 | 0.5 | Pastor |
| Other candidates | 391 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Lethbridge Liberal, toss-up
- Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner Conservative, safe seat
- Calgary Shepard Conservative, toss-up
- Foothills Conservative, safe seat
- Calgary East Liberal, competitive
- Calgary Midnapore Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated