Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner
Federal riding · Alberta · Rural Alberta
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 29.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner | 53.8% | 24.4% | 3.1% | 1.8% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 42.7%+11.1 | 41.0%−16.6 | 5.9%−2.8 | 1.4%+0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+23.4 | 47.0%−22.6 | 11.8%−8.7 | 2.4%−0.6 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Glen Motz · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 58.7 points, with 67.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 29.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glen Motz Elected | Conservative | 41,518 | 76.3 | Parliamentarian |
| Tom Rooke | Liberal | 9,554 | 17.6 | Retired |
| Jocelyn Johnson | NDP | 2,588 | 4.8 | Communications |
| Andy Shadrack | Green | 440 | 0.8 | Retired |
| Other candidates | 336 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bow River Conservative, safe seat
- Lethbridge Liberal, toss-up
- Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley Conservative, safe seat
- Foothills Conservative, safe seat
- Battle River—Crowfoot Conservative, safe seat
- Calgary Shepard Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated