Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley
Federal riding · Saskatchewan · Rural Saskatchewan
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 50.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley | 66.0% | 15.4% | 1.9% | 1.2% |
| Provincial averageSaskatchewan | 48.4%+17.6 | 34.9%−19.6 | 3.1%−1.2 | 1.7%−0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+35.6 | 47.0%−31.7 | 11.8%−9.9 | 2.1%−0.9 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Jeremy Patzer · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 70.3 points, with 70.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 50.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Patzer Elected | Conservative | 32,292 | 81.4 | Parliamentarian |
| William Caton | Liberal | 4,420 | 11.1 | Rancher |
| Alex McPhee | NDP | 2,250 | 5.7 | Cartographer |
| Maria Rose Lewans | Independent | 426 | 1.1 | Plumber |
| Other candidates | 273 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner Conservative, safe seat
- Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan Conservative, safe seat
- Saskatoon West Conservative, toss-up
- Saskatoon South Liberal, safe seat
- Saskatoon—University Liberal, safe seat
- Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated