Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek
Federal riding · Saskatchewan · Rural Saskatchewan
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 40.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek | 61.5% | 21.1% | 1.9% | 1.2% |
| Provincial averageSaskatchewan | 48.4%+13.1 | 34.9%−13.8 | 3.1%−1.3 | 1.7%−0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+31.1 | 47.0%−25.9 | 11.8%−9.9 | 2.1%−0.9 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Kelly Block · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 60.0 points, with 75.2% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 40.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Block Elected | Conservative | 36,427 | 76.9 | Parliamentarian |
| Katelyn Zimmer | Liberal | 8,008 | 16.9 | Veterinarian |
| Cheryl Loadman | NDP | 2,616 | 5.5 | Professor |
| Other candidates | 312 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Saskatoon—University Liberal, safe seat
- Saskatoon West Conservative, toss-up
- Saskatoon South Liberal, safe seat
- Prince Albert Conservative, safe seat
- Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan Conservative, safe seat
- Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated