Saskatoon—University
Federal riding · Saskatchewan · Regina and Saskatoon
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saskatoon—University | 51.7% | 36.4% | 2.8% | 1.8% |
| Provincial averageSaskatchewan | 34.9%+16.8 | 48.4%−12.0 | 3.1%−0.3 | 1.7%+0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+4.7 | 30.4%+6.0 | 11.8%−9.0 | 2.1%−0.3 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Corey Tochor · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 7.5 points, with 72.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 15.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Tochor Elected | Conservative | 23,178 | 48.5 | Parliamentarian |
| Greg Poelzer | Liberal | 19,622 | 41.1 | University Professor |
| Melissa McGillivray | NDP | 4,035 | 8.5 | Registered Nurse |
| Jaxson Boot | PPC | 327 | 0.7 | Self-Employed Equipment Operator |
| Isaiah Hunter | Green | 263 | 0.6 | University Student |
| Other candidates | 325 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Saskatoon South Liberal, safe seat
- Saskatoon West Conservative, toss-up
- Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek Conservative, safe seat
- Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan Conservative, safe seat
- Prince Albert Conservative, safe seat
- Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated