Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan
Federal riding · Saskatchewan · Regina and Saskatoon
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 35.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | PPC | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan | 56.1% | 20.8% | 4.1% | 2.4% |
| Provincial averageSaskatchewan | 48.4%+7.7 | 34.9%−14.1 | 1.7%+2.4 | 3.1%−0.8 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+25.7 | 47.0%−26.2 | 2.1%+2.0 | 11.8%−9.4 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Fraser Tolmie · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 54.9 points, with 73.1% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 35.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fraser Tolmie Elected | Conservative | 32,991 | 71.5 | Parliamentarian |
| Tabitha Mukamusoni | Liberal | 7,661 | 16.6 | General Manager |
| Britt Baumann | NDP | 3,458 | 7.5 | Academic Researcher |
| Chey Craik | PPC | 1,358 | 2.9 | Training Program Manager |
| Mike Gardiner | Green | 411 | 0.9 | Social Worker |
| Other candidates | 256 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Regina—Lewvan Liberal, safe seat
- Regina—Wascana Liberal, safe seat
- Regina—Qu'Appelle Conservative, safe seat
- Saskatoon South Liberal, safe seat
- Saskatoon—University Liberal, safe seat
- Saskatoon West Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated