Saskatoon South
Federal riding · Saskatchewan · Regina and Saskatoon
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saskatoon South | 50.7% | 36.7% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
| Provincial averageSaskatchewan | 34.9%+15.8 | 48.4%−11.7 | 3.1%−0.2 | 1.7%+0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+3.7 | 30.4%+6.3 | 11.8%−8.8 | 2.1%−0.3 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Kevin Waugh · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 8.8 points, with 72.4% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 14.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Waugh Elected | Conservative | 24,516 | 48.9 | Parliamentarian |
| Rokhan Sarwar | Liberal | 20,107 | 40.1 | Retail Manager |
| Jacob Gadzella | NDP | 4,515 | 9.0 | Digital Communications Specialist |
| Hamish Graham | Green | 310 | 0.6 | Farmer |
| Richard Brent Wintringham | PPC | 308 | 0.6 | Truck Driver |
| Other candidates | 410 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Saskatoon—University Liberal, safe seat
- Saskatoon West Conservative, toss-up
- Carlton Trail—Eagle Creek Conservative, safe seat
- Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan Conservative, safe seat
- Prince Albert Conservative, safe seat
- Swift Current—Grasslands—Kindersley Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated