Battle River—Crowfoot
Federal riding · Alberta · Rural Alberta
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 41.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Battle River—Crowfoot | 59.9% | 18.5% | 2.7% | 2.5% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 42.7%+17.2 | 41.0%−22.5 | 5.9%−3.2 | 1.8%+0.7 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+29.5 | 47.0%−28.5 | 11.8%−9.1 | 2.1%+0.4 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Pierre Poilievre · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 70.7 points, with 74.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 41.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Kurek Elected | Conservative | 53,684 | 82.3 | Parliamentarian |
| Brent Sutton | Liberal | 7,566 | 11.6 | Retired |
| James MacKay | NDP | 2,061 | 3.2 | Labourer |
| Jonathan Bridges | PPC | 1,022 | 1.6 | Mechanic |
| Douglas Gook | Green | 474 | 0.7 | Farmer |
| Other candidates | 391 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Red Deer Conservative, safe seat
- Ponoka—Didsbury Conservative, safe seat
- Bow River Conservative, safe seat
- Leduc—Wetaskiwin Conservative, safe seat
- Edmonton Southeast Liberal, safe seat
- Calgary Skyview Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated