Red Deer
Federal riding · Alberta · Rural Alberta
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 20.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Deer | 48.8% | 28.7% | 2.8% | 2.2% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 42.7%+6.1 | 41.0%−12.3 | 5.9%−3.0 | 1.8%+0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+18.4 | 47.0%−18.3 | 11.8%−9.0 | 2.1%+0.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Burton Bailey · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 49.4 points, with 70.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 20.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burton Bailey Elected | Conservative | 44,239 | 71.2 | Legislative Assembly Executive Assistant |
| Ayaz Bangash | Liberal | 13,564 | 21.8 | Insurance Broker |
| Elias Assefa | NDP | 2,375 | 3.8 | Constituency Assistant |
| Kyla Courte | PPC | 813 | 1.3 | Produce Manager |
| Ashley MacDonald | Green | 618 | 1.0 | Mental Health Aide |
| Brandon Pringle | Other | 219 | 0.4 | Grocery Clerk |
| Other candidates | 305 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ponoka—Didsbury Conservative, safe seat
- Leduc—Wetaskiwin Conservative, safe seat
- Airdrie—Cochrane Conservative, safe seat
- Calgary Skyview Liberal, safe seat
- Calgary McKnight Liberal, safe seat
- Calgary Nose Hill Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated