Ponoka—Didsbury
Federal riding · Alberta · Rural Alberta
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 52.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponoka—Didsbury | 59.4% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 2.8% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 42.7%+16.7 | 41.0%−34.1 | 5.9%−0.4 | 1.8%+1.0 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+29.0 | 47.0%−40.1 | 11.8%−6.4 | 2.1%+0.7 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Blaine Calkins · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 70.4 points, with 75.1% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 52.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaine Calkins Elected | Conservative | 56,106 | 81.8 | Parliamentarian |
| Logan Hooley | NDP | 7,414 | 10.8 | Student |
| Grant Abraham | Other | 2,129 | 3.1 | Self-Employed |
| Zarnab Zafar | Independent | 1,641 | 2.4 | Student |
| Larry Gratton | PPC | 1,289 | 1.9 | Advanced Care Paramedic |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Red Deer Conservative, safe seat
- Leduc—Wetaskiwin Conservative, safe seat
- Airdrie—Cochrane Conservative, safe seat
- Calgary Skyview Liberal, safe seat
- Calgary Crowfoot Liberal, safe seat
- Calgary Nose Hill Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated