Foothills
Federal riding · Alberta · Calgary
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 27.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foothills | 53.5% | 25.8% | 2.5% | 1.8% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 42.7%+10.8 | 41.0%−15.1 | 5.9%−3.3 | 1.4%+0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+23.1 | 47.0%−21.2 | 11.8%−9.3 | 2.4%−0.6 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
John Barlow · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 57.0 points, with 74.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 27.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Barlow Elected | Conservative | 54,874 | 76.0 | Parliamentarian |
| John Bruinsma | Liberal | 13,706 | 19.0 | Retired |
| Kaitte Aurora | NDP | 1,923 | 2.7 | Engineering |
| Paul O'Halloran | PPC | 796 | 1.1 | Semi-Retired |
| Emma Hoberg | Green | 589 | 0.8 | Western Organizer - Green Party of Canada |
| Other candidates | 334 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Lethbridge Liberal, toss-up
- Calgary Shepard Conservative, toss-up
- Calgary Midnapore Conservative, toss-up
- Calgary Heritage Liberal, safe seat
- Calgary East Liberal, competitive
- Calgary Centre Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated