Longueuil—Saint-Hubert
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a 77% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.8 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 85%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Bloc | Conservative | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Longueuil—Saint-Hubert | 40.9% | 38.9% | 16.3% | 4.3% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 43.6%−2.6 | 27.3%+11.6 | 24.2%−7.9 | 5.7%−1.4 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%−6.1 | 6.3%+32.6 | 30.4%−14.1 | 11.8%−7.5 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Natilien Joseph · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 1.3 points, with 69.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 2.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natilien Joseph Elected | Liberal | 24,237 | 40.2 | Real Estate Broker |
| Denis Trudel | Bloc | 23,468 | 38.9 | Parliamentarian |
| Martine Boucher | Conservative | 8,447 | 14.0 | Educator |
| Nesrine Benhadj | NDP | 2,986 | 5.0 | Project Manager |
| Other candidates | 1,168 | 1.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne Liberal, safe seat
- Brossard—Saint-Lambert Liberal, safe seat
- Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est Liberal, safe seat
- Laurier—Sainte-Marie Liberal, safe seat
- Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs Liberal, safe seat
- Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie NDP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated