Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie

Federal riding · Quebec

Forecast of October 15, 2026

In the by-election, our forecast gives the Liberal Party a 95% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.9 points.

The by-election

Favourite

Liberal

95% chance of winning

Seat vacant, polling day not yet set
Alexandre Boulerice is leaving
Average lead: 9.9 points

Projected vote share

Liberal 36.3%

Bloc 23.9%

NDP 23.9%

Conservative 9.8%

Green 5.1%

Why the by-election and the general election differ

In a general election, the NDP would lead; in the by-election, the Liberal Party.

Further down, the projection assumes a general election, with every seat voting on the same day. Fewer people vote in a by-election, and the least motivated supporters are the ones who stay home, so the favourite can change.

Full by-election forecast

Projected vote share

Projection by party

NDP 43.6%
Liberal 31.9%
Bloc 18.0%
Conservative 9.4%
Green 3.0%
PPC 1.0%

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

Compared with the average

	NDP	Liberal	Bloc	Conservative
Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie	43.6%	31.9%	18.0%	9.4%
Provincial averageQuebec	5.7%+37.9	43.6%−11.6	27.3%−9.2	24.2%−14.8
National averageCanada	11.8%+31.8	47.0%−15.1	6.3%+11.7	30.4%−21.0

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Local profile

Language spoken most often at home	French 83.7% English 7.9% Other languages 8.4%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Current member

Alexandre Boulerice · Independent

Elected as NDP; changed party on April 27, 2026. In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

Previous election (2025)

The NDP won by 9.3 points, with 72.3% turnout.

Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 11.7 points.

Candidates and votes in 2025

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Alexandre Boulerice Elected	NDP	24,358	40.5	Parliamentarian
Jean-Sébastien Vallée	Liberal	18,757	31.2	Director of Education and Communications
Olivier Gignac	Bloc	10,864	18.1	Management Consultant
Laetitia Tchatat	Conservative	4,073	6.8	Public Relations Consultant
Benoît Morham	Green	1,368	2.3	Science Teacher
Other candidates		753	1.3

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Papineau Liberal, safe seat
Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est Liberal, safe seat
Laurier—Sainte-Marie Liberal, safe seat
Outremont Liberal, safe seat
Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel Liberal, safe seat
Bourassa Liberal, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 15, 2026