Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 41.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | Bloc | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel | 64.6% | 22.8% | 7.0% | 4.6% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 43.6%+21.1 | 24.2%−1.4 | 27.3%−20.3 | 5.7%−1.1 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+17.6 | 30.4%−7.6 | 6.3%+0.7 | 11.8%−7.2 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Patricia Lattanzio · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 43.7 points, with 58.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 41.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patricia Lattanzio Elected | Liberal | 26,833 | 63.9 | Parliamentarian |
| Panagiota Koroneos | Conservative | 8,457 | 20.1 | Communications |
| Laurie Lelacheur | Bloc | 2,938 | 7.0 | Student |
| Marwan El Attar | NDP | 2,450 | 5.8 | Lawyer |
| Caroline Mailloux | PPC | 388 | 0.9 | Student |
| Other candidates | 952 | 2.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bourassa Liberal, safe seat
- Papineau Liberal, safe seat
- Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie NDP, safe seat
- Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est Liberal, safe seat
- Ahuntsic-Cartierville Liberal, safe seat
- Honoré-Mercier Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated