Honoré-Mercier
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 36.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | Bloc | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Honoré-Mercier | 59.9% | 23.7% | 12.7% | 4.0% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 43.6%+16.4 | 24.2%−0.4 | 27.3%−14.6 | 5.7%−1.7 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+12.9 | 30.4%−6.7 | 6.3%+6.4 | 11.8%−7.8 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Eric St-Pierre · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 38.0 points, with 65.1% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 36.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric St-Pierre Elected | Liberal | 29,947 | 59.2 | Lawyer |
| Ingrid Fernanda Megni | Conservative | 10,692 | 21.1 | Purchasing Specialist |
| Edline Henri | Bloc | 6,435 | 12.7 | Social Worker |
| Djaouida Sellah | NDP | 1,787 | 3.5 | Student |
| Gaëtan Bérard | Green | 568 | 1.1 | Sales Representative |
| Marie-Louise Beauchamp | PPC | 351 | 0.7 | Lawyer |
| Other candidates | 840 | 1.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- La Pointe-de-l'Île Bloc, toss-up
- Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel Liberal, safe seat
- Bourassa Liberal, safe seat
- Alfred-Pellan Liberal, safe seat
- Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est Liberal, safe seat
- Papineau Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated