Alfred-Pellan
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 31.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | Bloc | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred-Pellan | 54.4% | 23.3% | 20.0% | 3.9% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 43.6%+10.9 | 24.2%−0.9 | 27.3%−7.3 | 5.7%−1.8 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+7.4 | 30.4%−7.1 | 6.3%+13.7 | 11.8%−7.9 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Angelo Iacono · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 33.0 points, with 69.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 31.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angelo Iacono Elected | Liberal | 32,934 | 53.7 | Parliamentarian |
| Louis Ialenti | Conservative | 12,671 | 20.7 | Sales Manager |
| Isabel Dion | Bloc | 12,259 | 20.0 | Social Worker |
| Jordan Larochelle | NDP | 2,044 | 3.3 | Self-Employed |
| Ludovic Mbany | PPC | 423 | 0.7 | Computer Scientist |
| Other candidates | 1,010 | 1.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bourassa Liberal, safe seat
- Marc-Aurèle-Fortin Liberal, safe seat
- Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel Liberal, safe seat
- Vimy Liberal, safe seat
- Honoré-Mercier Liberal, safe seat
- Ahuntsic-Cartierville Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated