Marc-Aurèle-Fortin
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 28.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Bloc | Conservative | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc-Aurèle-Fortin | 52.8% | 23.6% | 23.3% | 4.0% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 43.6%+9.2 | 27.3%−3.7 | 24.2%−0.9 | 5.7%−1.7 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+5.8 | 6.3%+17.3 | 30.4%−7.1 | 11.8%−7.8 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Carlos Leitão · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 28.4 points, with 70.4% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 28.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Leitão Elected | Liberal | 29,928 | 52.0 | Economist |
| Claude Tousignant | Bloc | 13,584 | 23.6 | Teacher |
| Janina Moran | Conservative | 11,923 | 20.7 | Immigration Consultant |
| Alexandrah Cardona-Fortin | NDP | 2,128 | 3.7 | Floor Manager |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Vimy Liberal, safe seat
- Alfred-Pellan Liberal, safe seat
- Laval—Les Îles Liberal, safe seat
- Thérèse-De Blainville Liberal, safe seat
- Rivière-des-Mille-Îles Liberal, safe seat
- Ahuntsic-Cartierville Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated