Laval—Les Îles
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | Bloc | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laval—Les Îles | 50.5% | 34.9% | 14.6% | 4.0% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 43.6%+6.9 | 24.2%+10.7 | 27.3%−12.7 | 5.7%−1.7 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+3.5 | 30.4%+4.5 | 6.3%+8.3 | 11.8%−7.8 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Fayçal El-Khoury · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 17.3 points, with 66.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 15.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fayçal El-Khoury Elected | Liberal | 28,302 | 49.7 | Parliamentarian |
| Konstantinos Merakos | Conservative | 18,355 | 32.2 | Lawyer |
| Catherine Dansereau-Redhead | Bloc | 8,298 | 14.6 | Teacher |
| Étienne Loiselle-Schiettekatte | NDP | 1,961 | 3.4 | Community Relations Coordinator |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Pierrefonds—Dollard Liberal, safe seat
- Rivière-des-Mille-Îles Liberal, safe seat
- Marc-Aurèle-Fortin Liberal, safe seat
- Vimy Liberal, safe seat
- Saint-Laurent Liberal, safe seat
- Lac-Saint-Louis Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated