Saint-Laurent
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 28.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | Bloc | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Laurent | 58.8% | 30.4% | 5.7% | 4.2% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 43.6%+15.2 | 24.2%+6.3 | 27.3%−21.6 | 5.7%−1.5 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+11.8 | 30.4% | 6.3%−0.6 | 11.8%−7.6 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Emmanuella Lambropoulos · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 30.2 points, with 60.4% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 28.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuella Lambropoulos Elected | Liberal | 26,021 | 58.0 | Parliamentarian |
| Richard Serour | Conservative | 12,477 | 27.8 | Immigration Consultant |
| Marielle Gendron | Bloc | 2,523 | 5.6 | Teacher |
| Ryan Byrne | NDP | 1,985 | 4.4 | Communications Coordinator |
| Richard Chambers | Green | 693 | 1.5 | Retired |
| Manon Chevalier | PPC | 349 | 0.8 | Engineer |
| Fernand Deschamps | Other | 137 | 0.3 | Teacher |
| Other candidates | 663 | 1.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle Liberal, safe seat
- Mount Royal Liberal, safe seat
- Ahuntsic-Cartierville Liberal, safe seat
- Vimy Liberal, safe seat
- Outremont Liberal, safe seat
- Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated