Mount Royal
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Bloc | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mount Royal | 51.1% | 42.5% | 4.3% | 3.4% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 43.6%+7.5 | 24.2%+18.3 | 5.7%−1.4 | 27.3%−23.9 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+4.1 | 30.4%+12.1 | 11.8%−7.5 | 6.3%−2.9 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Anthony Housefather · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 10.5 points, with 65.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 8.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Housefather Elected | Liberal | 25,544 | 50.4 | Parliamentarian |
| Neil Oberman | Conservative | 20,244 | 39.9 | Lawyer |
| Adam Frank | NDP | 2,353 | 4.6 | Professor |
| Yegor Komarov | Bloc | 1,671 | 3.3 | Parliamentary Assistant |
| Diane Johnston | Other | 216 | 0.4 | Journalist |
| Other candidates | 705 | 1.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount Liberal, safe seat
- Outremont Liberal, safe seat
- Saint-Laurent Liberal, safe seat
- Ahuntsic-Cartierville Liberal, safe seat
- Papineau Liberal, safe seat
- Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated