Papineau
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 36.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Bloc | NDP | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Papineau | 53.0% | 16.3% | 14.7% | 13.1% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 43.6%+9.5 | 27.3%−10.9 | 5.7%+9.0 | 24.2%−11.1 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+6.0 | 6.3%+10.0 | 11.8%+2.9 | 30.4%−17.3 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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|---|
Current member
Marjorie Michel · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 35.9 points, with 65.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 36.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marjorie Michel Elected | Liberal | 24,700 | 52.3 | Politician |
| Sophy Forget Bélec | Bloc | 7,726 | 16.3 | Coordinator |
| Niall Ricardo | NDP | 7,606 | 16.1 | Jurist |
| Julio Rivera | Conservative | 4,927 | 10.4 | Business Administration |
| Xavier Watso | Other | 676 | 1.4 | Animator |
| Noah Cherney | PPC | 455 | 1.0 | Political Science Student |
| Stéphane Doucet | Other | 321 | 0.7 | Community Organizer |
| Garnet Colly | Other | 208 | 0.4 | Retired |
| Other candidates | 636 | 1.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie NDP, safe seat
- Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel Liberal, safe seat
- Outremont Liberal, safe seat
- Ahuntsic-Cartierville Liberal, safe seat
- Bourassa Liberal, safe seat
- Laurier—Sainte-Marie Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated