Laurier—Sainte-Marie

Federal riding · Quebec

Forecast of October 15, 2026

In the by-election, our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 28.4 points.

The by-election

Favourite

Liberal

100% chance of winning

Seat vacant, polling day not yet set
Steven Guilbeault is leaving
Average lead: 28.4 points

Projected vote share

Liberal 48.6%

NDP 18.0%

Bloc 16.0%

Conservative 12.2%

Green 3.6%

Why the by-election and the general election differ

The Liberal Party leads in both cases.

Further down, the projection assumes a general election, with every seat voting on the same day. Fewer people vote in a by-election, and the least motivated supporters are the ones who stay home, so the favourite can change.

Full by-election forecast

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Liberal 52.2%
NDP 17.2%
Bloc 15.3%
Conservative 11.7%
Green 3.5%
PPC 1.4%

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

Compared with the average

	Liberal	NDP	Bloc	Conservative
Laurier—Sainte-Marie	52.2%	17.2%	15.3%	11.7%
Provincial averageQuebec	43.6%+8.7	5.7%+11.5	27.3%−12.0	24.2%−12.5
National averageCanada	47.0%+5.2	11.8%+5.4	6.3%+9.0	30.4%−18.7

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Local profile

Language spoken most often at home	French 70.9% English 19.1% Other languages 10.0%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Current member

Steven Guilbeault · Liberal

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

Previous election (2025)

The Liberal Party won by 32.9 points, with 64.0% turnout.

Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 34.7 points.

Candidates and votes in 2025

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Steven Guilbeault Elected	Liberal	27,286	51.5	Parliamentarian
Nimâ Machouf	NDP	9,856	18.6	Epidemiologist
Emmanuel Lapierre	Bloc	8,079	15.2	Professor
Mathieu Fournier	Conservative	4,796	9.0	Administrative Assistant
Dylan Perceval-Maxwell	Green	1,452	2.7	Landlord
Michel Labelle	Other	269	0.5	Legal Advisor
Eugène Duplessis	PPC	253	0.5	Program Technician
Chantal Poulin	Other	195	0.4	Teacher
Adrien Welsh	Other	115	0.2	Journalist
Simon-Pierre Lauzon	Independent	62	0.1	Administrative Assistant
Dimitri Mourkes	Independent	38	0.1	Circus Arts Producer
Other candidates		602	1.1

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie NDP, safe seat
Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs Liberal, safe seat
Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est Liberal, safe seat
Outremont Liberal, safe seat
Papineau Liberal, safe seat
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount Liberal, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 15, 2026