Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Bloc | Conservative | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est | 46.2% | 26.8% | 13.0% | 10.7% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 43.6%+2.6 | 27.3%−0.5 | 24.2%−11.2 | 5.7%+5.0 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%−0.8 | 6.3%+20.5 | 30.4%−17.4 | 11.8%−1.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Marie-Gabrielle Ménard · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 18.7 points, with 65.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 19.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marie-Gabrielle Ménard Elected | Liberal | 23,601 | 45.4 | Radio Broadcaster |
| Rose Lessard | Bloc | 13,902 | 26.8 | Teacher |
| Julie Girard-Lemay | NDP | 6,671 | 12.8 | Lawyer |
| Carl Belley | Conservative | 5,402 | 10.4 | Maritime Pilot |
| Jacob Pirro | Green | 1,329 | 2.6 | Community Worker |
| Christine Dandenault | Other | 242 | 0.5 | Administrative Assistant |
| Other candidates | 815 | 1.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie NDP, safe seat
- Laurier—Sainte-Marie Liberal, safe seat
- Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel Liberal, safe seat
- Papineau Liberal, safe seat
- Longueuil—Saint-Hubert Liberal, toss-up
- Outremont Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated