Outremont
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 40.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | Bloc | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outremont | 55.3% | 15.0% | 11.8% | 10.2% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 43.6%+11.7 | 24.2%−9.2 | 27.3%−15.5 | 1.6%+8.6 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+8.3 | 30.4%−15.4 | 6.3%+5.5 | 2.4%+7.8 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Rachel Bendayan · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 42.1 points, with 62.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 40.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachel Bendayan Elected | Liberal | 26,024 | 54.5 | Parliamentarian |
| Ronan Reich | Conservative | 5,911 | 12.4 | Unemployed |
| Rémi Lebeuf | Bloc | 5,644 | 11.8 | Parliamentary Assistant |
| Ève Péclet | NDP | 5,024 | 10.5 | Lawyer |
| Jonathan Pedneault | Green | 4,539 | 9.5 | Co-Party Leader |
| Other candidates | 608 | 1.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Mount Royal Liberal, safe seat
- Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount Liberal, safe seat
- Papineau Liberal, safe seat
- Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie NDP, safe seat
- Laurier—Sainte-Marie Liberal, safe seat
- Ahuntsic-Cartierville Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated