Ahuntsic-Cartierville
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 42.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | Bloc | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahuntsic-Cartierville | 60.7% | 17.4% | 16.6% | 4.7% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 43.6%+17.1 | 24.2%−6.8 | 27.3%−10.7 | 5.7%−1.0 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+13.7 | 30.4%−13.0 | 6.3%+10.3 | 11.8%−7.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Mélanie Joly · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 43.3 points, with 67.2% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 42.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mélanie Joly Elected | Liberal | 30,833 | 59.9 | Parliamentarian |
| Nabila Ben Youssef | Bloc | 8,538 | 16.6 | Artist |
| Margie Ramos | Conservative | 7,600 | 14.8 | Account Manager |
| Idil Issa | NDP | 3,333 | 6.5 | Law Student |
| Linda Sullivan | Other | 273 | 0.5 | Administrative Assistant |
| Other candidates | 871 | 1.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Papineau Liberal, safe seat
- Vimy Liberal, safe seat
- Bourassa Liberal, safe seat
- Outremont Liberal, safe seat
- Mount Royal Liberal, safe seat
- Saint-Laurent Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated