Bourassa

Federal riding · Quebec

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 38.9 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Liberal	Conservative	Bloc	NDP
Bourassa	57.8%	18.5%	16.7%	4.5%
Provincial averageQuebec	43.6%+14.3	24.2%−5.7	27.3%−10.6	5.7%−1.2
National averageCanada	47.0%+10.8	30.4%−11.9	6.3%+10.4	11.8%−7.3

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	French 66.1% English 8.7% Other languages 25.2%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Abdelhaq Sari · Liberal

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Liberal Party won by 40.4 points, with 56.5% turnout.

Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 38.9 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Abdelhaq Sari Elected	Liberal	21,198	57.1	City Councillor
Jency Mercier	Bloc	6,206	16.7	Borough Inspector
Néhémie Dumay	Conservative	5,905	15.9	Federal Immigration Officer
Catherine Gauvin	NDP	2,137	5.8	Senior Nursing Advisor
Jean-Marc Lamothe	PPC	433	1.2	Real Estate Broker
Philippe Tessier	Independent	183	0.5	Conductor
Dominique Théberge	Other	140	0.4	Medical Technologist
Other candidates		929	2.5

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.