Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 42.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | Bloc | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs | 63.8% | 21.2% | 8.9% | 4.6% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 43.6%+20.2 | 24.2%−3.0 | 27.3%−18.4 | 5.7%−1.1 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+16.8 | 30.4%−9.2 | 6.3%+2.6 | 11.8%−7.2 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Marc Miller · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 44.4 points, with 59.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 42.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Miller Elected | Liberal | 30,905 | 63.0 | Parliamentarian |
| Steve Shanahan | Conservative | 9,113 | 18.6 | Consultant |
| Kevin Majaducon | Bloc | 4,364 | 8.9 | Parliamentarian |
| Suzanne Dufresne | NDP | 2,932 | 6.0 | Retired |
| Nathe Perrone | Green | 996 | 2.0 | Community Worker |
| Giovanni Di Placido | Other | 209 | 0.4 | Entrepreneur |
| Other candidates | 537 | 1.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- LaSalle—Émard—Verdun Liberal, safe seat
- Laurier—Sainte-Marie Liberal, safe seat
- Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount Liberal, safe seat
- Brossard—Saint-Lambert Liberal, safe seat
- Outremont Liberal, safe seat
- Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie NDP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated