LaSalle—Émard—Verdun
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 30.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Bloc | Conservative | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaSalle—Émard—Verdun | 51.0% | 21.0% | 16.3% | 8.1% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 43.6%+7.4 | 27.3%−6.3 | 24.2%−7.9 | 5.7%+2.4 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+4.0 | 6.3%+14.7 | 30.4%−14.1 | 11.8%−3.7 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Claude Guay · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 29.2 points, with 66.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 30.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Guay Elected | Liberal | 27,439 | 50.2 | Engineer |
| Louis-Philippe Sauvé | Bloc | 11,467 | 21.0 | Parliamentarian |
| Zsolt Fischer | Conservative | 7,456 | 13.7 | Real Estate Broker |
| Craig Sauvé | NDP | 5,587 | 10.2 | City Councillor |
| Bisma Ansari | Green | 1,298 | 2.4 | Business Executive |
| Gregory Yablunovsky | PPC | 260 | 0.5 | Retired |
| Frédéric Dénommé | Other | 169 | 0.3 | Computer Programmer |
| Manuel Johnson | Other | 136 | 0.2 | Lawyer |
| Normand Chouinard | Other | 81 | 0.1 | Truck Driver |
| Fang Hu | Other | 60 | 0.1 | Engineer |
| Other candidates | 663 | 1.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount Liberal, safe seat
- Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs Liberal, safe seat
- Mount Royal Liberal, safe seat
- Outremont Liberal, safe seat
- Laurier—Sainte-Marie Liberal, safe seat
- Brossard—Saint-Lambert Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated