Lac-Saint-Louis

Federal riding · Quebec

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 42.5 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Liberal	Conservative	NDP	Bloc
Lac-Saint-Louis	68.4%	25.9%	3.8%	3.7%
Provincial averageQuebec	43.6%+24.8	24.2%+1.7	5.7%−1.9	27.3%−23.6
National averageCanada	47.0%+21.4	30.4%−4.5	11.8%−8.0	6.3%−2.6

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	French 19.3% English 63.3% Other languages 17.4%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Francis Scarpaleggia · Liberal

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Liberal Party won by 43.7 points, with 75.1% turnout.

Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 42.5 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Francis Scarpaleggia Elected	Liberal	43,446	67.2	Parliamentarian
Matthew Rusniak	Conservative	15,203	23.5	Entrepreneur
Tommy Fournier	Bloc	2,330	3.6	Student
Gregory Evdokias	NDP	1,877	2.9	Scientist
Raymond Frizzell	Green	915	1.4	Postal Clerk
Mathieu Dufort	PPC	471	0.7	Sales Representative
Other candidates		439	0.7

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.