Pierrefonds—Dollard

Federal riding · Quebec

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 27.4 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Liberal	Conservative	Bloc	NDP
Pierrefonds—Dollard	60.2%	32.9%	5.4%	3.8%
Provincial averageQuebec	43.6%+16.7	24.2%+8.7	27.3%−21.9	5.7%−1.9
National averageCanada	47.0%+13.2	30.4%+2.5	6.3%−0.9	11.8%−8.0

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	French 25.8% English 50.0% Other languages 24.2%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Sameer Zuberi · Liberal

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Liberal Party won by 29.2 points, with 69.3% turnout.

Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 27.4 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Sameer Zuberi Elected	Liberal	34,326	59.5	Parliamentarian
Tanya Toledano	Conservative	17,453	30.2	Entrepreneur
Katrina Archambault	Bloc	3,097	5.4	Student
Kakou Richard Kouassi	NDP	1,613	2.8	Lawyer
Gordon Nash	PPC	333	0.6	Marketing Consultant
Shahid Khan	Independent	266	0.5	Real Estate Broker
Eyad Mobayed	Independent	48	0.1	Web Specialist
Other candidates		564	1.0

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.