Thérèse-De Blainville
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Bloc | Conservative | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thérèse-De Blainville | 45.8% | 31.8% | 20.5% | 3.7% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 43.6%+2.3 | 27.3%+4.5 | 24.2%−3.7 | 5.7%−2.0 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%−1.2 | 6.3%+25.5 | 30.4%−9.9 | 11.8%−8.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
|
|---|
Current member
Madeleine Chenette · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 13.3 points, with 72.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 14.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madeleine Chenette Elected | Liberal | 29,519 | 45.1 | Diplomat |
| Marie-Noëlle Closson-Duquette | Bloc | 20,828 | 31.8 | Lawyer |
| Julie Bergeron | Conservative | 12,019 | 18.4 | Lawyer |
| Michel Lacroix | NDP | 1,585 | 2.4 | College Professor |
| Chantal Lavoie | PPC | 446 | 0.7 | Administrative Assistant |
| Other candidates | 1,070 | 1.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Marc-Aurèle-Fortin Liberal, safe seat
- Rivière-des-Mille-Îles Liberal, safe seat
- Terrebonne Liberal, toss-up
- Alfred-Pellan Liberal, safe seat
- Laval—Les Îles Liberal, safe seat
- Vimy Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated