Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 23.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Bloc | Conservative | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne | 49.2% | 26.2% | 19.1% | 4.5% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 43.6%+5.6 | 27.3%−1.1 | 24.2%−5.1 | 5.7%−1.2 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+2.2 | 6.3%+19.9 | 30.4%−11.3 | 11.8%−7.3 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Sherry Romanado · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 22.3 points, with 63.4% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 23.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sherry Romanado Elected | Liberal | 25,138 | 48.4 | Parliamentarian |
| Beritan Oerde | Bloc | 13,583 | 26.2 | Translator |
| Terry Roberts | Conservative | 8,547 | 16.5 | Business Development |
| Marie-Andrée Gravel | NDP | 2,832 | 5.5 | Project Manager |
| Tiny Olinga | PPC | 411 | 0.8 | Business Executive |
| Donald Gagnon | Other | 389 | 0.7 | Entrepreneur |
| Other candidates | 1,027 | 2.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Brossard—Saint-Lambert Liberal, safe seat
- Longueuil—Saint-Hubert Liberal, toss-up
- Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs Liberal, safe seat
- Laurier—Sainte-Marie Liberal, safe seat
- Mont-Saint-Bruno—L'Acadie Liberal, safe seat
- Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated