Mont-Saint-Bruno—L'Acadie
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Bloc | Conservative | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mont-Saint-Bruno—L'Acadie | 47.3% | 34.6% | 15.6% | 3.7% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 43.6%+3.7 | 27.3%+7.4 | 24.2%−8.6 | 5.7%−2.0 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+0.3 | 6.3%+28.3 | 30.4%−14.8 | 11.8%−8.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Bienvenu-Olivier Ntumba · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 11.9 points, with 77.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 12.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bienvenu-Olivier Ntumba Elected | Liberal | 32,149 | 46.5 | Communications Advisor |
| Noémie Rouillard | Bloc | 23,947 | 34.6 | Lawyer |
| Nicolas Godin | Conservative | 9,335 | 13.5 | Computer Scientist |
| Mirabelle Leins | NDP | 1,590 | 2.3 | Student |
| Maria Korpijaakko | Green | 833 | 1.2 | Copy Editor |
| Patrick Rochon | PPC | 397 | 0.6 | Firefighter |
| Other candidates | 872 | 1.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne Liberal, safe seat
- Longueuil—Saint-Hubert Liberal, toss-up
- Beloeil—Chambly Bloc, safe seat
- Brossard—Saint-Lambert Liberal, safe seat
- Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est Liberal, safe seat
- Laurier—Sainte-Marie Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated