Abbotsford—South Langley
Federal riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a 94% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 81%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | PPC | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbotsford—South Langley | 38.2% | 34.9% | 1.8% | 1.2% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 46.7%−8.5 | 32.9%+2.1 | 1.5%+0.4 | 2.9%−1.7 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%−8.8 | 30.4%+4.5 | 2.1%−0.3 | 2.4%−1.2 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Sukhman Gill · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 9.1 points, with 66.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 3.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sukhman Gill Elected | Conservative | 24,116 | 43.1 | Farm and Office Manager |
| Kevin Gillies | Liberal | 18,969 | 33.9 | Real Estate Agent |
| Michael de Jong | Independent | 9,747 | 17.4 | Provincial Parliamentarian |
| Dharmasena Yakandawela | NDP | 2,104 | 3.8 | Barrister and Solicitor |
| Melissa Snazell | Green | 577 | 1.0 | Registered Pharmacy Technician |
| Aeriol Alderking | PPC | 459 | 0.8 | Retired |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Langley Township—Fraser Heights Liberal, toss-up
- Cloverdale—Langley City Liberal, safe seat
- South Surrey—White Rock Liberal, safe seat
- Fleetwood—Port Kells Liberal, safe seat
- Surrey Newton Liberal, safe seat
- Surrey Centre Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated