South Surrey—White Rock
Federal riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 18.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | Green | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Surrey—White Rock | 55.8% | 37.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 46.7%+9.1 | 32.9%+4.2 | 2.9%−1.4 | 9.2%−8.1 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+8.8 | 30.4%+6.7 | 2.4%−0.9 | 11.8%−10.7 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Ernie Klassen · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 4.8 points, with 71.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 18.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernie Klassen Elected | Liberal | 33,094 | 50.2 | Self-Employed Florist |
| Kerry-Lynne Findlay | Conservative | 29,924 | 45.4 | Parliamentarian |
| Jureun Park | NDP | 1,634 | 2.5 | Hotel Manager |
| Christine Kinnie | Green | 875 | 1.3 | Secretary, School District 36 |
| Other candidates | 371 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Cloverdale—Langley City Liberal, safe seat
- Surrey Newton Liberal, safe seat
- Fleetwood—Port Kells Liberal, safe seat
- Delta Liberal, safe seat
- Surrey Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Langley Township—Fraser Heights Liberal, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated