Surrey Centre
Federal riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 18.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surrey Centre | 53.1% | 34.5% | 2.0% | 1.6% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 46.7%+6.4 | 32.9%+1.6 | 9.2%−7.2 | 1.5%+0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+6.1 | 30.4%+4.1 | 11.8%−9.8 | 2.1%−0.5 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Randeep Sarai · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 4.7 points, with 58.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 18.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randeep Sarai Elected | Liberal | 19,900 | 47.6 | Parliamentarian |
| Rajvir Dhillon | Conservative | 17,920 | 42.8 | Lawyer |
| Dominic Denofrio | NDP | 2,811 | 6.7 | Constituency Assistant |
| Krishan Khurana | Green | 395 | 0.9 | Customer Service |
| Beverly Tanchak | PPC | 246 | 0.6 | Retired |
| Ryan Abbott | Other | 182 | 0.4 | Industrial Painter |
| Other candidates | 388 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Liberal, safe seat
- Surrey Newton Liberal, safe seat
- Fleetwood—Port Kells Liberal, safe seat
- Burnaby Central Liberal, safe seat
- Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby Liberal, safe seat
- Port Moody—Coquitlam Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated