Fleetwood—Port Kells
Federal riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | PPC | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood—Port Kells | 51.8% | 35.7% | 2.0% | 1.6% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 46.7%+5.1 | 32.9%+2.8 | 1.5%+0.6 | 9.2%−7.6 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+4.8 | 30.4%+5.3 | 2.1%−0.1 | 11.8%−10.2 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Gurbux Saini · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 3.7 points, with 63.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 16.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gurbux Saini Elected | Liberal | 23,250 | 47.5 | Businessman |
| Sukh Pandher | Conservative | 21,439 | 43.8 | Businessman |
| Shannon Permal | NDP | 2,885 | 5.9 | Court Clerk |
| John Hetherington | PPC | 499 | 1.0 | Artist |
| Murali Krishnan | Green | 460 | 0.9 | Notary Public |
| Other candidates | 404 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Cloverdale—Langley City Liberal, safe seat
- Surrey Newton Liberal, safe seat
- Surrey Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Langley Township—Fraser Heights Liberal, toss-up
- South Surrey—White Rock Liberal, safe seat
- New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated