Surrey Newton
Federal riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surrey Newton | 54.5% | 35.2% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 46.7%+7.8 | 32.9%+2.4 | 9.2%−7.3 | 1.5%−0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+7.5 | 30.4%+4.8 | 11.8%−9.9 | 2.1%−1.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Sukh Dhaliwal · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 5.4 points, with 63.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 19.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sukh Dhaliwal Elected | Liberal | 20,263 | 49.0 | Parliamentarian |
| Harjit Singh Gill | Conservative | 18,023 | 43.6 | Radio Broadcaster |
| Raj Singh Toor | NDP | 2,467 | 6.0 | Retired |
| Salman Zafar | Other | 222 | 0.5 | Claims Adjuster |
| Other candidates | 387 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Surrey Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Cloverdale—Langley City Liberal, safe seat
- Fleetwood—Port Kells Liberal, safe seat
- New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Liberal, safe seat
- Delta Liberal, safe seat
- South Surrey—White Rock Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated