Delta
Federal riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 22.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | PPC | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta | 57.1% | 34.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 46.7%+10.4 | 32.9%+1.7 | 1.5%+0.1 | 9.2%−7.7 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+10.1 | 30.4%+4.2 | 2.1%−0.5 | 11.8%−10.3 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Jill McKnight · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 8.6 points, with 74.1% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 22.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jill McKnight Elected | Liberal | 32,802 | 51.6 | Former Executive Director |
| Jessy Sahota | Conservative | 27,314 | 42.9 | Police Officer |
| Jason McCormick | NDP | 2,787 | 4.4 | Transit Operator |
| Natasa Sirotic | PPC | 390 | 0.6 | Teacher |
| Other candidates | 338 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Richmond East—Steveston Liberal, safe seat
- Surrey Newton Liberal, safe seat
- Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby Liberal, safe seat
- New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Liberal, safe seat
- Surrey Centre Liberal, safe seat
- South Surrey—White Rock Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated