Richmond East—Steveston
Federal riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond East—Steveston | 53.7% | 37.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 46.7%+7.0 | 32.9%+4.9 | 9.2%−7.7 | 2.9%−1.8 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+6.6 | 30.4%+7.3 | 11.8%−10.4 | 2.4%−1.3 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Parm Bains · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 2.1 points, with 63.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 15.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parm Bains Elected | Liberal | 25,705 | 48.1 | Parliamentarian |
| Zach Segal | Conservative | 24,605 | 46.1 | Public Affairs Advisor |
| Keefer Pelech | NDP | 2,251 | 4.2 | Senior Ministerial Advisor |
| Steven Ji | Green | 494 | 0.9 | Financial Investor |
| Other candidates | 364 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby Liberal, safe seat
- Delta Liberal, safe seat
- Vancouver Kingsway Liberal, toss-up
- Richmond Centre—Marpole Liberal, safe seat
- Vancouver Granville Liberal, safe seat
- Burnaby Central Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated