Richmond Centre—Marpole

Federal riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.1 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Liberal	Conservative	NDP	PPC
Richmond Centre—Marpole	49.9%	40.9%	1.5%	1.4%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia	46.7%+3.3	32.9%+8.0	9.2%−7.7	1.5%−0.1
National averageCanada	47.0%+2.9	30.4%+10.5	11.8%−10.3	2.1%−0.7

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	English 48.2% Other languages (French included) 51.8%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Chak Au · Conservative

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Conservative Party won by 4.8 points, with 59.2% turnout.

Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 9.1 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Chak Au Elected	Conservative	23,532	49.2	City Councillor
Wilson Miao	Liberal	21,232	44.4	Real Estate Consultant
Martin Li	NDP	2,109	4.4	Human Resources Professional
Michael Sisler	Green	420	0.9	Shuttle Operator
David Wang	PPC	193	0.4	Unemployed
Other candidates		334	0.7

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.